Preface: This is a wholly opinion based entry, constructed from readings, observations and deductions, as well as what I suspect is sound reasoning. Like the media, I’ve decided citations are unnecessary, for that time would be better spent drinking and watching porn.
GasolineRundown: Gasoline is great but there is no better, cleaner or more efficient way to produce it, relying 100% on refining the goo of dead things from millions (or thousands, praise Allah) of years ago that. The oil, though requiring those millions of years to brew (Thousand --Allah), is being used up something in the order of a few centuries. All in all, it represents a definition for bad foresight, but it’s just so damn convenient, like a drunk party girl.
Outlook: There will always be some oil, but I'd prefer to use it for things like plastic bags, glock stocks, rather than lighting it on fire.
DieselRundown: Diesel is like Gasoline’s bigger, older, uglier brother that says improper things around the family during thanksgiving and refuses to let you barrow his Led Zeppelin 2 CD to rip the songs. His only redeeming quality is a god-like strength that allows him to get a lot of work done, even if very little thought or technique is required. Much like your pot-smoking brother, Diesel has a lot of baggage that comes in the form of expensive materials and plumbing to clean up emissions of this un-refined fuel. The Europeans are big into the Diesel and have a lot of experience with it, recognizing early that they could better our state-side gas mileage by some 50%. As of 2007, tough emissions standards (In all modern countries) are preventing most companies from investing the money to develop a new series of Diesels for the US since demand is so low.
Outlook: Take it or leave it. Some people are obsessed with this fuel the same way they’re obsessed with quirky Scandinavian cars and hats with ear flaps, but the fact is, since there's less refining going into making the fuel, more refining is needed when using it. Pay now or pay later.
EthanolRundown: If I lived on a coast I wouldn’t have to hear about ethanol nearly as much. Now ethanol demand is higher than ever and is currently contributing to a
hay shortage for animals trapped in the snow. (normally when hey is short, they could feed ‘em corn- but we turned all the corn to fuel so we can drive nascar with out hippie intervention.) Ethanol emissions are similar to traditional hydrocarbons but the theory goes that growing the crop displaces the release of carbon-oxides. In the end, production of corn or other ethanol producing crops will adjust to meet demand, but it is unlikely that the US will be able to grow crop levels significant enough to offset fuel demands. The best thing going for ethanol is the idea that farmers (the kicking-dog of the modern economy) could grow the fuel of the future, is basically a wet dream for politicians.
Outlook: The great white hype will be around forever, likely as ad additive to all traditional gasoline in the 5 to 15% range, used to offset the necessary amount of imported oil. At these levels its presence will be transparent to the end users. Expect E85 cars to be a thing of the mid-west, or perhaps to die forever.
Bio-DieselRun-Down: Much like ethanol and Donny, the Bio Diesel (or b-dizzle as I like to call it) is way out of its league. Try as we might, we’re never going to consume enough chicken tenders and Taquitos to produce the excesses of cooking oil that the league of super hippies would require to power a country-sized fleet of late 90’s import diesel Volkswagens. Fact is, even as a produce based (soy, canola, bean sprout, what-EVER) derivative, we still run into the problem of size (of land) to yield (of fuel) ratios.
Outlook: The idea of using food wastes to create fuel is a great idea but it's not a game changer and is way over hyped. Unless we start buying 100lb bags of sugar from Central America for 13 cents to make the stuff (and thus interrupting the political dream of homegrown fuel and further angering the UFCW) expect to find the stuff as an additive to all diesel fuel in small quantities (<15%), and again off-setting the overall demand for ground-drawn oil.
Hybrid Electric VehiclesRun down: The benefits of gas electric hybrids in their current form are trumped up fallacies, the likes of which we have not seen since the myth of the female Orgasm (kidding...). The complexity of a car with a two input drive train, duel propulsion sources (gas engine/electric motor) duel energy tanks (gas/battery) and a computer system to manage it all, far negates the minuscule gains in efficiency. These Rube Goldberg devices are going to be a mechanics worst nightmare, combining the worst of two worlds. In fact, by trying to create the perfect balance, It seems the engineers have missed the point completely.
Outlook: If there is a god, consumer hybrids will go the way of the Do-do, Crystal clear pepsi, and my transformers lunch box. A reasonable development would include electric or hydraulic-based hybrid system with regeneration used in commercial and industrial applications such as garbage trucks and UPS and mail vehicles, for these are the duty cycles required to see real benefits from such systems.
HydrogenAs of now there exists no commercially viable method of cleanly producing mass quantities of hydrogen, nor is storage of hydrogen with energy density equivalent to gasoline even remotely possible. None of this of course would matter should oil run up to about $200/barrel. The promise of a near-term hydrogen future is a lie.
Hydrogen Fuel CellsRundown: Hydrogen fuel cells are unreliable beyond a few thousand hours of use and require super expensive platinum as a catalyst. The dominant automotive technology, PEM (proton exchange membrane) fuel cells are delicate and require highly pure hydrogen, operable only within the temperature range of water (0 – 100 Celsius) Worse, the often neglected, NASA pioneered Alkaline Fuel Cell (AFC) which is better suited to the demands of an automobile, has been virtually wiped out by the empty PEM promises of a Canadian company (Ballard Fuel Cells) in the early 90s. Fuel cells continue to be expensive because while they’re “hand assembled by PhDs” materials ain't cheap either, such as DOW’s proprietary Nafion (a necessary piece of EVERY PEM fuel cell) trademark for which has yet to expire.
Outlook: Hold your breath, I dare you.
Hydrogen ICE (Internal Combustion Engine)Rundown: When BMW announced the release of their duel fuel (hydrogen/gasoline) burning 7-series, they were pretty up front about it being a segue way technology. This way, without an outright commitment to a costly technology, the Germans can simultaneously spur the development of infant hydrogen infrastructure, test public demand for a “clean” vehicle and basically dip their tow into the hydrogen ocean. Unfortunately, as we’ve seen, cars with an abundance of technology and redundant systems are complex and costly. Not to mention that this tuned-down 12 (or was it 10?) cylinder engine only pumps out some 250ish horses. Worst of all, no one is paying attention to the fact that some 99.999999% of the hydrogen used will come from reformed natural gas (a heating fuel already in high price and demand- thanks Russia). So not only are we starting with a hydrocarbon, but we’re then reforming it (energy intensive with CO-based emissions) compressing and liquefying it (energy intensive AGAIN) and then burning it in a combustion engine with a thermally-based Carnot efficiency limit of some 40%. This is the fuel equivalent of burning $100 bills to clean out your chimney,
Outlook: Like banging a fat chick when times are rough, let us never speak of this perhaps necessary evil again, no matter how enjoyable or un-enjoyable it is.
The Electric CarRundown: The red-headed step child of the auto industry, the electric car is the greatest idea that nobody wants. Or at least that no one admits to wanting. Grid-charged battery storage is the most efficient way to transfer and use energy, even when considering the impact of coal power plants. Plus is takes two problems (car pollution and power generation pollution) and puts them into one basket (if all local commuting is done with electric cars, the majority of vehicle pollution AND all energy generation pollution can both be cleaned up by funding new ways to generate electricity... But darn it, I can’t think of any clean energy ideas with this stupid wind blowing in my face and this relentless sun pounding my forehead. I need a drink) With this method we have no oil, no anti-freeze, no gas, no catalytic converter (full of toxic emissions it collected) no transmission fluid, and probably no power steering fluid to deal with, and did I mention
my company’s batteries are easily recyclable? Of course, electricity is hard to store in large quantities just like anything else (again, energy densities aren’t even close to gasoline) but the point is, if you can make it to work and back, and maybe to the gentleman’s club afterward, you’ll be good for 80% of your driving, you typical American, you. Besides, since most families have two or three cars anyway, you (and I) can still keep the 400hp GTO.
Outlook: In the tomorrow land, bank on seeing a nice mix of pure electric cars, and something like the volt below:
GM VoltThis is the greatest idea that most of us have known about all along: Pure electric to run short commutes with and gas or diesel engine to charge the batteries on longer drives. Not as simple as a pure electric car, but still very elegant, requiring only one drive train. This is backyard technology and I’ve often talked about doing the same with the Fiat- all electric with a small weed whacker engine or something for heat or extra electricity or added noise should I bore of the silent and clean operation.
The point is, until there is a tangible economic cost associated with pollution (read: carbon tax, sharp spike in the price of oil, more war in the middle east, etc) it will be impossible to displace the existing cheap and convenient hydrocarbon establishment.